India’s foreign policy establishment is carefully weighing its response after US President Donald Trump launched a dual-pronged attack on the country at the UN General Assembly, a move that exemplifies the “mercurial” nature of his presidency, as described by Indian opposition leader Shashi Tharoor. The speech has put New Delhi’s strategy of quiet engagement under severe strain.
Trump’s first verbal assault was a revival of his claim to have “stopped a war” between India and Pakistan, a narrative India denies. His use of the world’s premier diplomatic forum to push this self-serving story, part of his ongoing campaign for a Nobel Peace Prize, was seen as a deliberate slight to India’s sovereign decision-making process concerning ‘Operation Sindoor’.
The second attack was more direct and globally significant. Trump publicly branded India and China as the “primary funders” of Russia’s war in Ukraine due to their ongoing oil purchases. This accusation was a sharp departure from recent friendly overtures and served as a public justification for the punitive tariffs his administration has imposed on Indian goods, which now stand at 50%.
The challenge for India is how to respond to a leader who oscillates between calling Prime Minister Modi a “good friend” and publicly shaming his country. The Modi government has so far avoided confrontational rhetoric, even in the face of provocative statements and policies like steep hikes in H-1B visa fees. Instead, Modi has often pivoted to domestic themes like “swadeshi” or self-reliance.
However, the high-profile nature of the UNGA speech may force a change in tactics. As Tharoor noted, Trump’s unpredictability can cut both ways; a president who can be “unpredictably negative” could also become “unpredictably positive.” For now, Indian diplomats are left to navigate the fallout of the negative turn, managing a critical partnership that has become increasingly volatile and transactional.