The images were impossible to ignore: towering columns of black smoke rising above Tehran as Israeli strikes set oil storage facilities ablaze, while Gulf states reeled from Iranian drone and missile barrages that left desalination plants damaged and civilians dead. Against this backdrop, global oil prices crossed $100 per barrel, a threshold not seen since 2022.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards responded to the Israeli strikes with blunt fury, warning that oil prices could reach $200 per barrel if the attacks continued. The threat was directed not just at Israel but at Gulf states, whom Iran accused of facilitating the campaign by allowing their airspace and military bases to be used against Tehran.
The human cost of the conflict mounted rapidly over the weekend. Four Iranian oil workers were killed in the Israeli strikes. Two Saudi civilians died in a residential attack. A US service member succumbed to injuries sustained during an Iranian strike in Saudi Arabia, raising American fatalities to seven. In Lebanon, four people were killed in a hotel blast in Beirut.
Iran’s political transition deepened the uncertainty. The clerical assembly appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader, replacing his father in a move that critics called the birth of a dynasty within a state founded to abolish hereditary power. The new leader’s hardline credentials suggested little appetite for de-escalation.
Diplomatic efforts remained fragile. Iran’s president had publicly apologized to Gulf neighbors and suggested strikes would end — only for the military to continue its campaign hours later, revealing deep rifts within the Iranian government and undermining any prospect of a near-term ceasefire.